Protracted conflict confirmed
By Dr. Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu
With LTTE Leader Velupillai Pirapaharan’s speech, the prospect of protracted conflict into the future is confirmed. Tracing the evolution of the peace process, the LTTE Leader reverts to his argument that the Sri Lanka state has demonstrated time and time again that it is unable and or unwilling to recognise Tamil grievances and aspirations in a power sharing settlement within a united Sri Lanka.
According to him he has tried and tried again to resolve differences through negotiations, only to be sorely disappointed. The strategy of the current government, he says, is one of pursuing war and peace. It is fundamentally flawed. It seeks as its objective the isolation and marginalisation of the LTTE, which is the champion of the Tamil liberation struggle and it has effectively made the CFA defunct.
Cynical ploys
Presidential commissions, commissions of inquiry and all party conferences he dismisses as ruses and cynical ploys to avoid addressing the main issue of Tamil grievances and aspirations — “They are like looking for a black cat in a dark room,” he says.
At the same time he expresses disappointment, even hurt with the international community for accepting the arguments advanced by the government and proscribing the LTTE as a terrorist organisation. He hopes that the international community will recognise the suffering and privation on the human rights and humanitarian front that the Tamil people are going through as well as the frustration their political leadership meets in its attempts at negotiation with the government be it on normalisation, ISGA, P-TOMS, paramilitaries or the opening of the A9. Therefore he hopes that the international community will also recognise that the Tamil people in political terms have to be allowed to go their own way.
Pirapaharan concludes with thanks to the international Tamil community, Tamil Nadu and the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora and appeals to them to continue their support and solidarity.
Clues
Much is read into Pirapharan’s ‘Heroes’ Day’ speeches in the search for clues as to what the LTTE strategy is and as to what its future actions will be. Precise identification is risky, but there is no escaping from the fact that hostilities are in store for the future and of an intensified nature. This has been the trajectory of the conflict since the last presidential election and in that sense is nothing new. Likewise, the reiteration of the goal of a separate state.
The Oslo Communiqué contained a commitment to explore a settlement along federal lines; it did not, some optimistic pronouncement notwithstanding, constitute a categorical disavowal of the goal of a separate state. The most optimistic interpretation was that in the event Oslo yielded a viable alternative to the secessionist goal, the latter could have been jettisoned once the viability of the alternative was irrefutably demonstrated.
Force of arms
Given Pirapaharan’s rhetoric, the question as always remains as to whether secession is feasible and viable for the LTTE. He points out that it was because of their force of arms that the government came to the table to enter into negotiations. It would seem that it is only force of arms that can secure secession for him and that too is problematic. The factors constraining this in the past have not gone away. Pirapaharan needs to remind his constituency of the importance of military force to the LTTE and in doing so, try to secure their support for his project into the future. However it is unlikely that he will succeed.
As he points out in his speech, there are key internationals which support the current government strategy of militarily weakening the LTTE. As the last Co-Chairs statement revealed, there are limits to what the international community is willing and able to do in respect of a political settlement, humanitarian concerns and human rights protection. It is only India that can play a higher profile role at this point.
India doing so is not necessarily to the advantage of the LTTE — indeed the message that will be forcefully put across to the President of Sri Lanka on his current visit is precisely that the LTTE and the Tamil people are not synonymous. The political rights of the Tamil people are not necessarily the political interests of the LTTE. The political rights of the Tamil people include the merger of the north and east, a settlement along federal lines, human rights protection as well as the opening of the A9. None of this amounts to a separate state.
The real battle
What has been said time and time again continues to be of relevance. The likelihood of a military victory in this conflict is slim. Protracted conflict at great cost will result in mutual exhaustion and a return to the table, not because either side wants to but because they have concluded that they have to. The real battle therefore is about the future political architecture for Sri Lanka — the shape and substance of a political and constitutional settlement.
In this respect, even though he says it is both too late and in any event highly unlikely, the best response to Pirapaharan’s speech is a genuine offer of federalism as the basic design of a peace settlement. The APRC and its panel of experts should expedite their efforts in this respect and move speedily towards multi stakeholder acceptance and implementation.
Alleviating suffering
In the meantime, since it will take some time, there have to be effective measures to alleviate the suffering and privation of the Tamil community be it in the peninsula and in Vaharai. Pirapaharan’s speech holds out the prospect for them of greater suffering and privation in the pursuit of a separate state; government activity also subjects them to suffering and privation in defence of the status quo they long concluded is unfair and unjust. And the international community insists that only Sri Lankans can resolve this conflict, they can only facilitate its resolution.
The people of the north and east need at least a respite. Whoever ends up governing them will only be able to do so with legitimacy and credibility. Alleviating their current appalling condition will be a first step in winning hearts and minds and in saving lives. [MorningLeader.lk]
