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Some remarks on the International involvements, political solution, the issue of the merger, and Muslim factors

By Dr. A.R.M. Imtiyaz
[Department of Political Science, Temple University, USA]

In modern state affairs, international elites play bigger role in deciding the fate and destination of local affairs. These elites usually devour liberal/neo-liberal agendas, and support all kind of political decisions including war and peace as well as endorse all kind of political actors including liberal and non-liberal as long as those local actors recognize agendas of the international elites. One may find somehow difficulties to accept this political science theory, but reality does not oppose my understanding.

In Sri Lanka, since end of the cold war, both west and India have been sharing common agendas, which oppose both separate state and Sinhala-Buddhist dominated unitary state. These actors including India have deep political, strategic and economic interests on Sri Lanka, which hangs in strategically important Asian region. Besides, China, rising Asian power, bundle its interests in the region.

Thus, to avoid rising China’s influence in the region (with or without Pakistan support) and to consolidate their interests in war-torn Sri Lanka, these actors more likely choose compromise over confrontation with the Tamil Tigers who already had earned great deal of attention due to its policies. The Tamil Tigers who claim of the Sinhalese discrimination against the ethnic Tamils well know that there will not be another new state in the chunk of South Asia. The doors for the new state have already been closed in 1971 as East Pakistan produced linguistic based state-Bangladesh. So, practically, it is highly unlikely to witness another state in the region mainly due to current global and geo-political political environment. For that reason, to pacify the Tamil Tigers and to consolidate their interests, these elites including India would like to see political solution in the fork of power sharing both at center and regions as a solution to the ethnic civil in Sri Lanka.

Whether one may like or not, such a political package to devolve the powers should be based on wider power sharing for the Northeast. As we know, India would not support less than 13th amendment, which introduced temporary merger in 1988. India, rising economic elephant in the region, consistently has been opposing referendum on the fate of temporary merged, and will more likely to exercise the same against any such move from Colombo. Realistically, Sri Lanka political elites cannot afford to infuriate India. India has been cautiously observing the increasing Pakistan¡¯s military involvement in Sri Lanka against the Tamils Tigers, particularly in Air Force in ongoing military operations against the Tamil Tigers, and would not contentiously bless such cooperation between Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Like wise, it is unlikely India would endorse any full scale military actions against the Tamils for some reasons (India¡¯s Tamil constituencies, its own interests, etc). The bottom line is that India neither support separation nor approve military solution. So, to consolidate India¡¯s interests, India would pursue just political solution little beyond the 13th amendment of 1988 beyond the unitary state structure and within the limit of existing merged Northeast.

Will West, principally the US, go against India parameters on Sri Lanka? According accepted wisdom on Sri Lanka, one cannot think pessimistically. India is a regional power and In fact, nothing can be realistically done against its interests (even China knows this fact though it is trying to expand its influence through the parties like the JVP in Sri Lanka and Marxists actors in India and ruling elites in Bangladesh). But regional actors such as China know the reality and thus, have been trying to be on the board of the South Asia to expand its interests.

The Tamil Tigers who burned their fingers by killing Rajive Gandhi in 1990 seem to be regretting about their blunders, while Southern Sinhala-Buddhists have been doing their homework to engage India. Also, Muslim elites including the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) have been maintaining very good relations both with Western players and India. The SLMC contacts with India go back to 1988. The SLMC is recipient of India’s generous help for a while and also has been enjoying the similar support from Western actors including Norway. The bottom-line is actors in Sri Lanka cannot go against the interest of India due to the global order.

So, it is impossible for political actors in Sri Lanka to close the eyes to India in their struggle to seek for a political solution de-linking the North-East merger. Any feasible political solution will come up or will have to with the merger. However, Sri Lanka’s desperate Sinhala political elites who have been outbidding their opponents on the anti-Tamil or anti-minority issues since independence, would attempt to employ so-called Muslim factors to disturb such political moves for their electoral benefits. These Sinhalese elites have played reasonably considerable role in the past to disturb ethnic unity among Sri Lankans, particularly between the Tamils and Muslims and will continue to do so. The JVP and JHU have been playing strapping role to de-link the merger in the name of patriotism, and will do the same through their new organization to prevail the Sinhalese support to outbid their Sinhala opponents in the UNP and SLFP camp for electoral gains.

In my professional understanding, Sri Lanka conflict which victimized lives of more than 80,000 people requires political solution. The Tamil Tigers are the product of Sri Lanka’s five decades old ethnic outbidding Sri Lanka’s Sinhala political elites employed to win the Sinhalese votes.

Minorities in Sri Lanka have legitimate grievances and Sri Lanka polity should offer space for the political solution to bring back minorities trust. Such political environment can be realized through the political negotiations and engagements. I do not think ethnic civil war in Sri Lanka or elsewhere can be settled amicably through the language of war.

In fact, non-political solution such war and forceful assimilation will not anyway weaken politico-military movements including the LTTE, rather military confrontations, by and large triggers mass cooperation, support and ethnic/religious loyalty for the political movements. This had been clearly proved in the case of Hezbollah which had successfully resisted mighty Israel’s 34 days failed military maneuver, which was made possible due to covert and overt help of the US. As a matter of fact, successive Sinhalese governments in Sri Lanka since 1983 controlled by the Southern Sinhalese elites have been trying to militarily neutralize the LTTE, but what history proves is that the more the state uses violence the the stronger the Tamil Tigers are.

In Sri Lanka, even after 25 years of conflict the Sinhalese political classes have not come to realized that minorities including Muslims have legitimate grievances that deserve honorary political solutions. As I always said, a final solution of Sri Lanka ethnic conflict requires reconstitution of the post-colonial unitary State. This may be a, in my understanding, good recipe to neutralize the Tamil Tigers. Also, such political solution would raise the minorities trust in the system. Sri Lanka more likely to continue to bleed and even would face political collapse as long as Sinhalese political elites refuse to seek a political solution beyond the current British introduced unitary system.

In this context, Muslim political actors who generally maintain cordial contests with the Sinhala elites to strengthen Muslim identity based on Islamic faith and to win their own shares in Sri Lanka polity need to formulate good strategies to win their cake. It seems their stratagem seems politically hurting Northeast Muslims. Muslims are at the cross roads and their elites would have to make their choices very carefully. They need to be aware of both international political environment and the pressures of the conflict on the progress of Sri Lanka as well as their fragmented reality both in the Northeast and South.

Northeast Muslims whether one likes it or not, need to live with the Tamils. They practically cannot think of life beyond the Tamils who have larger sayings in the entire region. That does not mean Muslims need to compromise their political choices, but my point is that Muslims need to make practical demands or make demands that do not go against the fundamental interests of the Tamils. Also, Northeast Muslims need to begin negotiations with the Northeast Tamil leaderships. Northeast Muslims cannot afford to reject the Tamil leadership while innocently and completely trusting the Southern Sinhala elites who have been trying to play Muslim cards to destabilize the both Eastern region and political solution. Such situation would help the Tamil Tigers to actively pursue their agendas and to win more international legitimacy. Sadly, it seems Muslim politico-community and intellectuals do not understand this harsh reality.

Following demands from Muslim political and intellectuals circle may help to win Muslim share in the Sri Lanka polity:

• Pressure both the LTTE and the Sinhalese ruling elites for political solution that fulfill the needs of minorities.

• Demand the separate Muslim seat in the peace negotiations. This should be done through the international actors.

• Engage the Tamil leadership that has been politically and militarily confronting the Southern Sinhala leaderships since 1983. Muslims need such engagements both to win their demand and to successfully operate future Muslim unit in the east.

• Demand Muslim politico-administrative in the chunk of Northeast

• Pressure the Sinhalese ruling elites through the international actors to declare entire Muslim parts of East as peace zone that is literally free from the activities of Tamil paramilitary forces, i.e. Karuna.

• Pressure the Tamil Tigers through international actors including India to declare the EAST as peace zone. Muslim parts of the east should NOT be used by the Tamil Tigers for military purposes against the state forces or Tamil paramilitary forces.

• Urge the JVP and JHU NOT to play Muslim cards for their political gains.

• Muslim political parties, organizations needless to say Muslim scholars should form common agenda and platform to pursue these demands.

According to well received political science theories, political choices will generate consequences. Whether we like it or not, masses will have to pay prices for every choice elite and their friends as well as some politico organizations make in the name of masses. Therefore, let us hope these political forces make some good choices both to fulfill their own agendas and to give at least bit of peace to those masses who voted them to the political office.