By D.B.S. Jeyaraj
Humpty - Dumpty had a great fall!
The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam has had a great fall.!!
For the first time in many years the tigers feel threatened and beleaguered. The
organization that revels in terrorising others particularly those of the Sri Lankan Tamil
community through violence finds itself at the receiving end. In a remarkable reversal of
roles a motley group of various anti - tiger Tamil elements aided and abetted by the
security and intelligence networks of the state is providing the LTTE with a taste of their
own bitter medicine. Naturally the tigers are not relishing it.
The Karuna factor dismissed derisively by the tigers and their sycophants is looming
large on the Eastern horizon. Karuna himself shuttles between Sri Lanka and a South -
Eastern Country where his family resides. He left Sri Lanka last on May 6th. Some say he
has now returned.
In any case as this column stated a while ago Karuna is now a brand name. A large
number of tiger cadres loyal to him are now in the Eastern Province and Polonnaruwa
district. They are kept in different units in different locations. They are functionally
autonomous but are helped and to some extent logistically supported by the security
network. The Sri Lankan military intelligence provides some guidance and direction. It
also exercises some amount of control and restraint. The espionage agency of at least
one country has provided financial aid.
The Karuna faction and Karuna himself received a boost through the tie up with the
Eelam National Democratic Liberation Front led by Gnanasekaran alias Paranthan Rajan.
Though Rajan himself is under house arrest in Seyyaaru in Tamil Nadu several of his
cadres based in Bangalore, Salem, Sengalpattu etc have returned and are returning to
Sri Lanka. They have joined forces with Karuna in the East. The killing of a senior ENDLF
cadre "Kanthan" at Soruvil by the tigers some months ago is an indicator of this union.
The Karuna faction is formally known as Tamil Eelam Makkal Viduthalaip Puligal. After
teaming up with the ENDLF a broader front known as Tamil Eelam Illiya Viduthalai
Munnani (Tamil Eelam United Liberation Front) was formed. Some former members of the
PLOTE Mohan group and Razeek Group too have joined this front.
The PLOTE and ENDLF input has helped to set up several pro - Karuna websites in the
West. In addition the Tamil Broadcasting Coroporation radio headed by ENDLF stalwart
Ramarajan has also been sympathetic to Karuna. More importantly large numbers of
Eastern Tamil expatriates are slowly rallying around Karuna. There is much clandestine
fund raising. This naturally has led to some corruption and the TEMVP had to issue a
public warning to be atchful about charlatans raising funds in Karunas name.
The real impact however has been on ground. The Karuna - Rajan combine with some
level of support from forces of the state has been conducting a hit and run campaign
against the tigers in the East. Of course the LTTE too is doing its own bloodletting. Yet
the LTTE has been on the decline in this dirty, shady war. The LTTE finds it difficult to
even maintain a presence in the Eastern littoral controlled by the security forces.
Some months back the LTTE withdrew most Northern cadres based in the East. Then
they closed down all their political offices in the East and withdrew their "unarmed
cadres".The LTTE now stays in areas controlled by it but have reduced mobility and
visibility to a great extent. Karuna cadres have penetrated Trincomalee too and recently
killed a senior sea tiger commander "tikkan".
An interesting phenomenon was the absence of a hartal in Batticaloa - Amparai districts
for tikkan. This is because the LTTE lacks a "political' apparatus to mobilise such a hartal
in those districts. Karuna on the other hand has resumed publication of the East based
Tamil newspaper "Thamil Alai" (Tamil wave). On the other hand the LTTE's East based
edition of the "Eelanatham" is more of a web -paper now.
The Karuna - Rajan combine has started moving into Vavuniya - Mannar districts too. It is
slowly establishing units there. The LTTE is now strengthening its Wanni defences
considerably. The Karuna - Rajan combine is not strong enough to take on the LTTE in
direct combat. But they are powerful enough to conduct an effective guerilla campaign. In
the event of war the combine will get legitimised and fight alongside as an auxiliary force.It
appears that the tigers fear infiltration and possible invasion into their heartland. thus the
LTTE is now very much on the defensive. It continues to make threatening noises about
possible war until and unless these "paramilitary" (Mentioning Karuna is anathema) forces
are disbanded.
This is what the LTTE mouthpiece "Tamilnet" had to say in a report dated July 20th.
"LTTE's Political Head Mr. S. P. Thamilchelvan, after meeting with a Norwegian delegation
Wednesday morning in Kilinochchi told the press that the ceasefire monitors did not bring
any new message that will improve the deteriorating ground conditions in the NorthEast.
He accused Colombo and the Sri Lankan armed forces for nurturing and promoting
paramilitary groups in the SLA held areas of the NorthEast in violation of clause 1.8 of the
CFA. "We stressed to Norwegian delegation the urgency of disarming the paramilitaries
according to the terms of the CFA," Thamilchelvan told the reporters.
The Norwegian delegation comprised of Norwegian Deputy Ambassador, Oddvar
Laegreid, Head of Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM), Hagrup Haukland, and other
Norwegian embassy and SLMM officials, sources in Vanni said.
"The responsibility of bringing the situation to normalcy lies entirely in the hands of the
Government of Sri Lanka and its armed forces," Mr. Thamilchelvan told the press.
The activities of the paramilitary groups - killings of civilians and LTTE's political cadres -
are taking place within the SLA occupied areas, LTTE's Political Head said.
"The paramilitaries can be effectively and immediately controlled if Colombo is seriously
committed to the CFA agreement and the peace process," Mr. Thamilchelvan told the
reporters.
He added that the Tigers have repeatedly pointed out to Colombo, as stipulated in the
clause 1.8 of the CFA agreement, that the paramilitaries must be disarmed and vacated
from the SLA occupied areas of the Tamil homeland in the North East.
"This very basic clause of the CFA agreement need to be respected in both word and
deed and given due respect by Colombo and its armed forces. The killings of civilians
and our unarmed political cadres in the SLA held areas must be stopped and a safe
environment created for our unarmed political officials and cadres to engage in political
work," he said.
"Once again, this is what we had to point out to the ceasefire monitors," Mr. Thamilchelvan
told the press. He further said that the LTTE respects and understands the concerns of
the International Community and the efforts of the Norwegian facilitators in the peace
process, but said the responsibility lies entirely with Colombo as it has not taken or
implemented any concrete measure to implement the above mentioned clause in the Cease
Fire Agreement. "We have taken note that the International Community also has expressed
this concern to Colombo", he said.
What is interestingly ironic about Thamilselvans stance is that this is exactly what all those
supportive of human rights. Democracy and pluralism have been entreating the tigers
since the ceasefire.The ceasefire accord of Feb 23rd 2002 has clauses forbidding
certain activity
" Neither Party shall engage in any offensive military operation. This requires the total
cessation of all military action and includes, but is not limited to, such acts as :
a) The firing of direct and indirect weapons, armed raids, ambushes, assassinations,
abductions, destruction of civilian or military property, sabotage, suicide missions and
activities by deep penetration units;
b) Aerial bombardment:
c) Offensive naval operations
It also stipulated that -
." Tamil paramilitary groups shall be disarmed by the GOSL by D-day + 30 days at the
latest. The GOSL shall offer to integrate individuals in these units under the command
and disciplinary structure of the GOSL armed forces for service away from the Northern
and Eastern Province.
Now the LTTE wants the ceasefire agreement to be implemented strictly. But it was the
LTTE that began violating the ceasefire in letter and spirit by killing members of Tamil
groups opposed to them in the North - East. When concerned people raised the issue the
LTTE mocked them. Now the same LTTE says " The killings of civilians and our unarmed
political cadres in the SLA held areas must be stopped and a safe environment created
for our unarmed political officials and cadres to engage in political work," How have the
times changed!
When the LTTE was asked about killings done by the LTTE in government controlled
areas Thamilselvan disclaimed responsibility saying they were the responsibility of the
government.Now the same LTTE finds its cadres killed in Government areas. So they are
treating the matter seriously and protesting.
Even on the Karuna issue the LTTE now describes the faction as "paramilitary" and wants
the Government to disband it. But when the split occurred the LTTE called it an internal
matter and announced they would resolve it without outside involvement. So everyone
kept out and the tigers commenced a killing spree. Thamilselvan called Karuna a
"madman" and a "single individual". Now the wheel has turned full cycle. The LTTE wants
Governmental intervention.
But will the Government oblige? Technically provisions of the ceasefire do not apply to
Karuna. His faction did not exist at the time of the ceasefire. So the disbanding of" para -
military forces" clause cannot be invoked against him. Furthermore he is still not a para -
military force. He could be one if and when war breaks out. Also the bulk of his armed
cadres are in Polonnaruwa not the N - E. So the ceasefire clause about disbanding
paramilitaries in N- E will not apply to him..
The LTTE called Karuna a renegade once. That is what he is still. A renegade heading a
renegade faction. He begged the Norwegians to facilitate a treaty between him and
Colombo so that peace could be ensured in the East. This was denied then. So now if
Karuna is to be curtailed he will have to be recognozed formally as a separate entity. He
should be allowed to enter the democratic mainstream. Then he could be made subject to
some checks and controls. Will the LTTE agree to it? I do not think so.
Instead the LTTE will be hoping for Kumaratunga now or Wickremasinghe in the future to
cave in to tiger demands and enable the LTTE as was done in 2004 April to unleash
savage bloodshed against Karunas men. It may also hope that Norway as usual would
silently sanction that orgy. Events have moved too far for such a development.
Kumaratunga or even Wickremasinghe would find a security force rebellion on their
hands if they tried to sacrifice Karuna again without a quid pro quo from the LTTE.
After the April fiasco the "intelligence" has realised the potential of Karuna. The Country
at large has seen the effectiveness of this hit and run campaign in recent times. Even the
International community including Oslo has seen that the only effective countervailing
pressure on the LTTE is this faction. The "renegades" have succeeded in making the
tiger tuck its tail in between its legs. It would be a very foolish decision for Colombo if it
sacrifices Karuna to the tigers without adequate return.
Sadly for the tigers their credibility is at an abysmal low. No one trusts them. So Karuna
cannot be sacrificed on the strength of LTTE assurances. There must be firmer
commitment of bona fides. Furthermore there must be concrete proof of its genuineness
as ground reality. Will the LTTE make such a genuine shift? Not very likely.
Moreover the induction of the ENDLF into this situation and the slow relocation of cadres
from India to Sri Lanka suggest that there is an international dimension to this too.
Thanks to Rajan's alignment Karuna is no longer all alone in this world of "international
intrigue". Other forces are also backing Karuna.So it may not be as simple as the LTTE
thinks for Colombo to jettison Karuna.
The LTTE may even be thinking of war as one way to overcome the Karuna threat and
regain the East. The current reality is that the LTTE has become increasingly alienated
from the Eastern Tamil people. Even if there is no tidal wave of support for Karuna it is
the regional satrap who retains more clout in his home territory vis a vis the LTTE. If war
breaks out the LTTE may be counting on the security forces to commit human rights
violations on a massive scale. Clashes with Muslims too could be engineered. This may
inculcate an us versus them mindset within the Eastern Tamils towards the Sinhala and
Muslim people of the region.
If that happens and a sense of community consciousness coupled with a feeling of
insecurity pervades the Eastern Tamils they would increasingly tirn towards an armed
Tamil entity for protection. Since Karuna will be aligned to the security forces he may not
be able to provide that. So the Tamil people may have to turn towards the LTTE. Karunas
alignment with the security forces could affect his standing with the community in a war
situation. He could be seen as a collaborator and traitor towards his people. This situation
could help the LTTE to regain and consolidate its hold over the Eastern Tamil people.
Though this is a likely scenario the situation is too dicey for the LTTE to rely on this as a
definite one. Given the balance of forces and the resentment in the East towards the
LTTE the tigers run the risk of being overrun in the initial stages of the conflict itself. The
LTTE priority will be defending the Wanni. Batticaloa - Amparai is not strategically as
important as that. So the forces deployed in the East will be comparatively smaller. If
Karuna succeeds in driving out the LTTE from the region and then establishes a no -
conflict situation in the East then the tigers would find themselves well and truly deflated.
So the LTTE despite its war rhetoric is very much circumscribed. The four co - chairs in a
hard statement have called upon both parties to stop the killings. They have first and
foremost asked the LTTE to stop all killings and then pressured the Government. It has
not been one sided on the government alone as Thamilchelvan is trying to project. The
LTTE began this violence and continues to engage in it. It is only when it is beaten at its
own game that the LTTE shouts and appeals. Even then it is blind to its own faults and
seeks to blame the government and the paramilitary forces.
If the LTTE really wants Eastern bloodshed to end and guarantee its security then it will
have to come to terms with Karuna. This column anticipated this type of situation and
urged the LTTE at the beginning of the split to make peace with Karuna. This was not
followed and tiger propagandists attacked this column saying the Karuna problem was a
mere bubble to the great :thalaiver". Now the chances of rapprochement with Karuna are
remote. Karuna is strong and on a good wicket. The only option for the LTTE is to
recongnize Karuna, accept him as a legitimate entity in the East and bind him down to a
Oslo facilitated ceasefire agreement and then honour it.
Unless the LTTE is willing to do this it has no way of meeting the Karuna threat. In the
meantime the LTTE can demonstrate its sincerity and commitment towards genuine
peace by desisting from violence. It can respect the four co - chairs and stop its killings.
Let the LTTE follow Thamilchelvans words and stop the " killings of civilians and unarmed
political cadres in the SLA held areas" and create " a safe environment for all unarmed
political officials and cadres to engage in political work."