Tiger Supremo Weighing Pros and Cons of War
By D.B.S. Jeyaraj
Whatever his his merits and faults may be indecisiveness is certainly not an attribute of
Velupillai Pirapakaran. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam supremo is neither weak nor
vacillating like the Shakespearean prince of Denmark.
In recent times however the feline numero uno seems to be facing a dilemma like Hamlet.
Should the tigers continue "to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune" in a no
war - no peace scenario or "to take arms against a sea of troubles and by opposing end
them?"
Though warmongers among tiger camp followers and fellow travellers - most of them
safely ensconced in the cooler climes of the west - would like war the choice is not starkly
simple for the Sun God as it was for the Prince.
For one thing the LTTE is not the sole aggrieved party suffering slings and arrows. While
the tigers complain about the safety of their cadres LTTE assassination squads continue
to kill and maim unarmed people suspected of subscribing to contrary political opinion.
Philippiah a 56 year old father of three was killed in Atchuvely. He was formerly of the
Peoples Liberation Organization of Tamil Eelam. 22 year old Nixon was gunned down in
Yarlpaanam. He was a distributor of the Tamil weekly "Thinamurasu" published by the
Eelam Peoples Democratic Party.
Even as the LTTE was merrily bumping off these perceived "opponents" the 24 Sri
Lankan soldiers and three Scandinavian monitors in a fleet of armoured vehicles were
escorting Trincomalee tiger political commissar Elilan safe and sound to Kilinochchi.
Then there is the question of "opposing troubles and ending them". Can the tigers end all
their troubles by taking up arms again and opposing them? What is the guarantee that
things may not take the direction the tigers want? Would it not be better to remain in a
"no war - no peace" atmosphere for some more time instead of jumping from the pan to
the fire?
These are the doubts assailing the LTTE supremo and at least some sutonomus thinkers
of the tiger hierarchy. All the pros and cons of reverting to war are being seriously
weighed. All possible scenarios are being analysed and options evaluated. Ultimately it is
the "thesiya Thalaiver" (National leader) s decision that would be carried out.
If it is war then like Tennysons light brigade the tigers will plunge into war."Their's not to
reason why, theirs but to do or die".Sadly the tigers do not have the luxury of even
thinking "someone had blundered". For their leader is infallible and can do no wrong or
commit any mistake.
The tigers are beating the drums of war in a carefully crafted strategy.
The chief component of this design is the move to create an illusion that the Tamil people
of the North - East want war. No people on earth particularly civilians who underwent the
travails and trauma of war for decades will want war again. The Tamil people living in the
potential war zone of the North - East know what lies in store for them if war erupts.The
bombings, shellings, massacres, ecomomic embargoes, denial of fishing, agricultural and
transport rights, cordons, searches, arrests, detentions, torture, killings, draconian
provisions of the terrorism act etc are all fresh in their minds.
Yet the LTTE has been orchestrating demonstrations, meetings etc in the name of the
people demanding war.Engineered mass petitions are being sent to the tiger chief urging
war. The tiger controlled Tamil media is whipping up themselves into furious paroxysms
entreating war. The ridiculous nadir of these moves was the Vavuniya convention.
Parliamentarians and priests competed among themselves to warn of war and want war.
Once again a vociferous minority is propelling the Tamil people ecstatically to impending
doom while the overwhelming majority - silenced in the name of liberation - watches this
march of folly in repressed agony.
Adding further impetus to this push for war are the theatrics engaged in by LTTE bigwigs.
The "Beria of Tamil Eelam" Pottu Amman makes regular public appearances in conduct
most unbecoming of any normal intelligence chief. Pottu and other tiger commanders "jaw
- jaw" about prospective "war - war". Thamilselvan growls for the 158th time since the
ceasefire that the Tamil people are losing patience.Political cadres are withdrawn from
Govt controlled areas in the East.
While the outward appearance of imminent war is diligently projected on stage backroom
moves are on through the partisan good offices of Oslo to strike a gainful bargain with
the so called International community and Colombo. The LTTE expects the International
community to fund some pro - tiger organizations for the ostensible purpose of post -
tsunami reconstruction. The Supreme Court intervention on P - TOMS has strengthened
the tigers claim in this respect. Quid pro quo will be a guarantee of tigers not going to war
for a specific period.
The LTTE also wants Colombo to deliver. Tiger political strategist Anton Stanislaus
Balasingham in an interview outlined four problems affecting the ceasefire. Dismantling
high security zones, disarming paramilitaries, safety of political cadres and safe transport
of tigers betwen North and East are the four points. If these are not guaranteed or
implemented soon the ceasefire will not hold he says. Scandinavian monitors concur in
another version of His Masters Voice.
Except for the security zone demand none of the others relate to problems suffered by
the Tamil people. They are all about issues affecting the LTTE. Even the security zone
issue has a military dimension. The tigers want them dismantled not for the people alone
but for their own reasons too.The tigers are ready to resume war and make the people
suffer for such self - centred objectives.
The redeeming factor in this scenario is that some sections of the LTTE at least are
concerned about the international situation. They feel that the USA led West as well as
India will back Colombo if war continues. If the LTTE gains militarily the International
community could redress the balance of power in more ways than one. A unilateral
declaration of Independence will be useless without some international backing.
Furthermore such a UDI could be an open invitation for active international intervention in
the Island. If that happens all tiger hopes will urn dupes.
Another option is to make a lightning strike. Some strategic military targets will be
knocked out. Some key real estate will be taken over. All this within three to ten days.
Then the LTTE will suspend war and go back to peace talks again. But it would be in a
position of strength having shown what it is capable of to the World and Colombo.
Again the doubt is whether the security forces are such easy pushovers as the tigers
imagine. The proposed swift strike could fail and protracted conflict ensue. Angered
international opinion could turn hostile and pugnaciously uncompromising. If so the LTTE
will be in deep trouble.
Then there is the economic aspect. The LTTE is virtually minting money through
rapacious taxation.The "tourism" of Tamil expatriates is very profitable. Much commercial
activity has commenced directly. The lucrative sea food export for example is now
monopolised by the LTTE. All this would be affected if war breaks out. Then there is
much foreign aid coming in with a lot more in the pipeline.
Even as the LTTE chief ponders over these possibilities there is a serious, overarching
reason prodding him on the road to war. 41 months of uneasy peace is debilitating the
movement slowly yet steadily. The LTTE knows that this "containment" is only enervating.
The reasons for this have to be discussed on another occasion. The crux of the matter is
that Velupillai Pirapakaran knows that prolongng this state of affairs can do irredeemable
harm to his movement and ideals.
So there he is now sitting on the banks of Iranaimadhu and contemplating the future.
Continuing the current status quo is weakening the LTTE. Resumption of war could also
harm the LTTE. Which of these options would prove the lesser danger and when? When
his mind is made up the tiger chief will command his minions. Appeasement policies may
postpone the inevitable but cannot prevent it.
As for the long suffering, silenced Tamil masses they are not going to be consulted by
the LTTE about resuming war. But if the tiger chief asks them and they dare to answer
the question about going to war they will have only one word of advice - Dont!.
[Minor Matters - Morning Leader]