Presidential Stakes and the Minority Votes
By D.B.S. Jeyaraj
Sri Lankas fifth presidential election is looming large on the political horizon. Political
excitement is in the air. Cynics have observed that the difference between a
democracy and a dictatorship is that in the former the people think that they are
indeed electing their rulers freely.
The Presidential poll being an Island wide direct election provides all voters
regardless of race, religion, caste and creed an opportunity to elect the most
powerful single individual for a specific term. In practical terms the minority
communities of the Country have no real chance of directly electing one of their ilk to
this post though any citizen can aspire to be President in theory.
The development of what can be termed a two party system in Sri Lanka and the
entrenched bloc votes of the Majority community according to party lines on the
one hand and the mobilisation of minority community votes on the other has in the
past created a situation where the latter groups are in a position to tilt the scales in
any decision.
This has given the minority communities an importance far beyond their numerical
strength in the making and unmaking of executive presidents. Some parties
representing minority communities have resisted changes to the presidential system
on the basis that the minorities could lose their influence in a non - presidential
system.
Despite the dependency of several candidates on minority votes to win the
presidency the harsh reality is that such a factor has not restrained overt anti -
minority acts on the part of Presidents elected in such fashion. In spite of this
disconnect between Presidential polls and presidential performances each election
campaign sees replays of the old, old game of wooing minorities by the premier
candidates. This election would be no exception to this general rule.
Election dates are to be fixed. The final list of candidates is not complete. The
names and parties of the chief candidates are known. It is a foregone conclusion
that the choice is between Ranil Wickremasinghe of the UNP and Mahinda
Rajapakse of the SLFP.If the Sinhala - Buddhist vote gets divided in near equal
numbers the minority vote will determine the victor. Even if one candidate gets a
lions share of the Sinhala - Buddhist votes the other may yet edge him out if he
garners the bulk of the non - Buddhist minority votes.
The poll will not be a single issue election. The rising cost of living will affect voters
across ethnic lines. Nevertheless the single most emotive issue dominating the poll
will be that of the ethnic conflict and how to manage or resolve that conflict.
There has been convergence and divergence betwen President Kumaratunga and
opposition leader Wickremasinghe on this in the past. Both are supportive of the
peace process facilitated by Norway aiming to reach a negotiated settlement with the
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. Both agree that some interim arrangements of
power sharing with tigers are necessary.The difference however is in the
sequencing.
Hitherto Kumaratunga had envisaged a course where any interim arrangement had
to be linked to the final settlement. Wickremasinghe however was more pragmatic
and was amenable to an interim arrangement being set up without making linkage to
a final solution a conditionality.
It was this difference of approach that came out clearly on the LTTE demand for an
Interim Self - Governing Authority (ISGA) for the North - East. The UNP government
of Wickremasinghe expressed reservations on some aspects of the demand but
agreed to negotiate further on the matter.President Kumaratunga and her party
criticised that approach, condemned the ISGA proposal and finally dismissed
Wickremasinghes government on that count.
If Wickremasinghe wins the presidency there is no doubt that he will pick up the
threads of the peace process from the point where he was crudely interrupted and
continue. Of course a snap Parliamentaey election will be on the cards to help
procure a favourable majority.
As far as Mahinda Rajapakse is concerned things are not clear on this . For one
thing Kumaratunga herself modified her earlier stance when she found that no
meaningful progress was possible. She tried in her own way to use the tsunami
disaster as a means to reconcile in a limited manner with the LTTE and work
together with the tigers in reconstruction and rehabilitation. This was rejected
outright by her ex - ally the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna which opposed any form of
engagement with the LTTE.
The dilemma facing Rajapakse is whether he should follow the Kumaratunga mode
or reject it. There is a general perception in the country that Wickremasinghe will in
the final analysis get more minority votes than Rajapakse. If so simple arithmetic
demands that Rajapakse focus on the Sinhala - Buddhist vote. For this some
understanding and working arrangement with the JVP and the Jathika Hela Urumaya
"saffronistas" may be necessary. Mahinda may also have to dissociate himself with
Kumaratungas dream project the P- TOMS.
However deft his fancy footwork may be any perceived veering towards the
majoritarian hawks by Rajapakse will naturally result in an inevitable minority
backlash. The LTTE controlled Tamil media has effectively conditioned the Tamil
psyche into JVP phobic. As for Champika Ranawaka and the yellow robed politicos
all minorities in the country are firmly opposed.
It was the Up Country Tamil votes that helped JR Jayewardene trailing below the
50% mark to zoom to victory with 54%. When Saumiyamoorthy Thondaman was
congratulated for delivering the plantation vote he sumply smiled and said " I did not
do anything.When the plantation worker saw that the opponent was Kobbekaduwe of
land reform fame he or she instinctively voted against". Likewise the minority voters
of the Island will no doubt vote overwhelmingly against Mahinda if he is perceived to
be a JVP - JHU bedfellow.
If he does not align with the JVP and JHU they may field separate candidates and eat
into Mahindas Sinhala votes. On the other hand even if Mahinda wins by aligning
with the JVP and JHU parties the irrational demands they may make of him will stultify
any forward movement on the peace process and set the stage for war. One
possibility is for the JVP and JHU to see Wickremasinghe as the greater evil and
extend unconditional support for Rajapakse.
Whichever way the wind blows the minority votes will no doubt play a crucial and
decisive role. There is very little likelihood of a free and fair poll in the Tamil areas of
the N - E. If the April 2 parliamentary poll of 2004 is any indicator the LTTE is
capable of manipulating Northern votes. It remains to be seen whether the Karuna
rebellion will change this scenario in the East.Apart from vote rigging most genuine
Sri Lankan Tamil votes will no doubt be supportive of the best pro - peace
candidate.
The "christians" feeling alienated and insecure by the violence of the non - christian
extremists will no doubt vote as a bloc this time. Their choice too will be for a
comparatively liberal secular type of Buddhist candidate as opposed to the stridently
"Buddhistic" one.
The Muslim and Up Country Tamil votes will be fragmented. Both candidates will get
their share of the votesBut Rajapakse identifying with the JVP and JHU can cause a
massive minority swing away from him..In Colombo Wickremasinghe has the upper
hand among minorities.
To their credit both Wickremasinghe and Rajapakse are not seen as "anti - minority"
Sinhala leaders. But an overt identification with the forces of Sinhala hegemonic -
centrism and Buddhist supremacist - chauvinism can indict either of them in the
eyes of the minorities who are capable of influencing the final verdict .
[MinorMatters-MorningLeader]