It's a period of trial for Lankan leaders
by PK Balachandran
It looks as if Sri Lanka's top leaders are on trial now, facing grave challenges and
an uncertain future. The list includes the newly elected President, Mahinda
Rajapaksa; the defeated United National Party (UNP) leader Ranil
Wickremesinghe; former President Chandrika Kumaratunga; and the LTTE
Supremo, Vellupillai Prabhakaran.
Having come to power on the basis of his personal charisma bordering on the
messianic, President Rajapaksa has a huge and varied agenda to fulfill. On the
economic front, the skyrocketing prices of essentials have to be brought down;
jobs have to be provided for the hoi polloi; foreign investment has to be attracted;
foreign aid utilisation has to improve drastically; and economic reform has to be
initiated against stiff opposition from his radical Marxist allies.
Admittedly, despite the tsunami of December 2004, the Sri Lankan economy is
now growing at a decent 5.2 per cent. But there has been a decline since 2003,
the second year of peace, when the GDP grew at 6.6 per cent. Between 2003 and
2004, the budget deficit grew from 7.3 per cent to 8.2 per cent. The trade deficit
went up from $1.3 billion to $2.2 billion, and the current account deficit from $71
million to $648 million.
Foreign aid utilisation had come down from 27 per cent in 2003 to 18 per cent in
2004. Sri Lanka's Auditor General had reported that in the first six months after
the tsunami, only 13 per cent of the aid had been utilised. In 2004, Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) totalled $233 million only.
The gargantuan public sector utilities threaten to continue to drain the exchequer.
Rajapaksa's Marxist ally, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), which has
powerful trade unions, is not going to let him go ahead with economic reform as
suggested by or dictated by international lending institutions. The JVP has already
sensed Rajapaksa's inability to follow its prescriptions and has decided not to be
part of his government. It has reserved the right to criticise and agitate against him
and make political capital out of his mistakes or "anti-people" polices and garner
support for itself in the coming local body or parliamentary elections.
With the kind of price reductions and doles Rajapaksa has promised in his
90-page election manifesto, the Treasury may come under unprecedented strain.
The already overstaffed public sector is going to be burdened with another
1,10,000 appointments, if the promise to provide government jobs is implemented.
Bringing peace most challenging task
But the most challenging task before Rajapaksa will be to bring peace to Sri Lanka
through negotiations with the rebel chieftain Prabhakaran. The two sides not only
have entrenched positions on what a solution should be like, but their attitudes
have hardened in the last few days.
Rajapaksa wants Prabhakaran to come to terms with the hard line position the
Sinhala-majority community in Sri Lanka held prior to 1994. But Prabhakaran has
stuck to the classic Tamil position. The Tiger chieftain has even said that if a
"reasonable" proposal does not come from Rajapaksa "soon" he will have no
option but to resume the struggle for independence "next year" (presumably
anytime after January 1, 2006). This is interpreted as a threat to unleash war
again.
In his first ever address to the Sri Lankan Parliament as President, Rajapaksa said
that his government was rejecting the LTTE's demand for a separate Tamil
Homeland in the North East and that there was no question of giving any ethnic
group the right to self-determination and secession. Rajapaksa said that he would
find a solution within a "united" Sri Lanka. But given his past statements on this
issue and his election campaign, the term "united" actually denotes a "unitary"
constitution, which the Tamils and the LTTE do not want.
While the least that the LTTE and the Tamils want is a "federal" constitution,
Rajapaksa and the Sinhala majority are allergic to it. They think that a federal
constitution in whatever form, will definitely lead to the dismemberment of Sri
Lanka.
There is, therefore, no meeting ground between Rajapaksa and Prabhakaran.
However, both are playing for time as neither can afford to go to war to settle the
issue. Both are under pressure from the international community, which has
become a key player in the Sri Lankan peace process since 2002. The
international community, though fighting Al-Qaeda elsewhere, wants a peaceful
settlement, not war, in Sri Lanka. And the countries involved in Sri Lanka are led
by the redoubtable United States, the world's sole super power.
Reliance on India may be misplaced
Rajapaksa is counting on India's help to keep the West and the West-backed
Facilitator Norway out, or at least to contain them. But India of today is not as
anti-West as it was in the 1980s.It also has domestic legal and political problems
which will prevent it from playing a direct role in the Sri Lankan peace process. It
cannot interact with the LTTE because that outfit is banned in India. The
pro-LTTE or pro-Tamil parties, now part of the government in New Delhi, will not
allow it take an anti-LTTE or anti-Tamil line. Further more, as per the India-Sri
Lanka Accord of 1987, India is committed to fostering a federal solution to the
ethnic conflict.
In his Heroes' Day speech, LTTE chief Prabhakaran had said that he would "wait
and observe" Rajapaksa, and Rajapaksa has said that he will build a consensus
about a political solution in the Sinhala south before opening talks with the LTTE.
But it remains doubtful if the Sri Lankan President will be able to come out with a
"reasonable" proposal "soon" as demanded by Prabhakaran, and ward off the
threat of war in 2006. [Courtesy: Hindustan Times]
