Negotiating with the "illiberal" forces
Dr. A.R.M. Imtiyaz
The assassination of Foreign Minister Mr. Kadirgamar not only deeply shocked
many Sinhalese but also vigorously spurred Southern nationalists who oppose the
power sharing arrangements with the LTTE. Literally, absence of social peace with
justice in ethnically divided societies would bring negative social disharmony
between the different ethnic groups.
It should not be a duty or task of students of political science to inquire whether the
events or phenomenon is good or evil, or just or unjust, moral or immoral. That
sort of job goes to political elites, leaders and activists, because job of student of
political science is to understand the events, predict the future political reality and
recommend some measures what he/she thinks best for the country’s better
interests. Therefore, I purposefully refrain from giving political science judgment to
the event in Colombo over the weekend.
Winning the Sinhala votes
In Sri Lanka, elections are basically ethnically influenced. I would describe these
elections as ethnic elections. This reality exists not only in Sri Lanka but also
almost all ethnically divided democratic societies. Such ethnic elections would lead
the political elites to carefully play the games and avoid any unnecessary moves to
disturb major aim to stay on the power. From the SLFP’s Sinhala-Only in 1956 to
JVP’s current anti-tsunami pact campaign major purpose is not to help out the poor
Sinhalese but to win Sinhalese votes. Sri Lanka’s demography and electoral
arrangements give major boost to Sinhala nationalist forces to outbid their
opponents on the anti-minority programs, particularly on the anti-Tamil or
programs. The Southern political elites outbidding policies finally produced the
violent LTTE.
It is true that elites both in the ruling (President Chandrika Kumaratunga) and
opposition (Ranil Wickramasinghe) share considerable interests in sealing a peace
pact with the LTTE, major ethno-political movement. The radical elements of the
southern nationalists are highly critical of ruling elite’ attempts to offer political
concessions to the LTTE. These elements also blame the political elites both in the
ruling and major opposition for their continuous intention to find a negotiated
political solution with the LTTE, which became a coauthor of no-war treaty, signed
in February 2002. In actual fact, ruling political elites in Colombo would face
harsh challenges to sell their political packages to the southern voters if they fail to
deliver economic expectations of the southern Sinhalese who become victims of
ruling elite’s liberal economic policies. Nationalists’ leaders would carefully plan
their political strategies and fill the voters’ hearts with the anti-LTTE programs to
outbid liberal counterparts to cling on the power.
The point is that southern anti-peace forces are well organized and able to
mobilize southern poor voters for their own political ends. As a result, anti peace
programs would work well to win Sinhalese votes if the liberal and pro-peace forces
fail to deliver economic and social justice. Further, the one of the best way to
challenge these nationalists forces is to pay no heed to those anti-peace elements
and vigorously put efforts to seek a power-sharing in a strategic political science
language consociational democracy arrangements to fix the ethnic conflict, which
is a result of southern elite’ vote-maximization struggle on the anti-Tamil or anti-
LTTE programs. Political elite’ major purpose is to win elections or to consolidate
power they won in the last elections: liberal elites (the UNP and the SLFP) might
follow their traditional outbidding strategies to win the Sinhalese sympathies if they
find pro-peace platform would fail to draw the Sinhalese votes, thus peace will
suffer heavy blow and the LTTE would find more logical excuses to justify their
mobilization or rebellion.
Ethnic elections
As ethnic elections are in the corner, Foreign Minister Mr. Kadirgamar’s demise
should not lend a hand to political elites to resume war mongering slogans or five-
decade old outbidding culture. Current trend suggests that radical Sinhala
nationalists forces such as the JVP and the JHU actively planning to utilize Foreign
Minister’s demise to win southern Sinhala votes in their quest for the power. This is
an accurate balance of Sri Lanka’s outbidding political culture. Anti-racists forces
and liberal elites need to do something carefully with country’s future in mind and
take moves to counter these southern forces. This would not only help to build the
Tamil trust but also would weaken the LTTE’s illiberality. However, if the southern
elites and political leaders deny the vibrant and enlighten approaches and
continue their outbidding political culture, then Sri Lanka would continue to be a
homeland of deadly ethnic conflict in Asia.
Why do they rebel?
Technically, guerrilla style insurgency or terrorists’ activities pose serious
challenge to the state and its forces. What Iraq insurgency against the Anglo-
American invasion clearly proves is that even sophisticated military powers could
be successfully challenged if the insurgency loses the trust in the political
establishment and shares gigantic motivation to rebel against the system. No one
was born as a terrorist. Insurgents or terrorists are product of the political and
social system. In other words, when the political system acts unfairly, rebellion
would occur. When the rules of the games are unfairly fixed or rules of the games
are set to serve partially for a particular community in divided societies,
marginalized groups rebel against the state and its institutions. That is to say, set
of unfair rules of games in a political society would likely motivate the marginalize
people to rebel or to support the political or violent mobilization. The LTTE comes
to this theoretical understanding since they are product of southern elites’
ethnocentric policies to outbid the opponents.
The motivation of insurgency largely comes from oppression and discrimination.
Nevertheless insurgents’ motivation can be disturbed if the political elites carefully
move their game plan, which aims power-sharing democracy with those illiberal
forces. This would facilitate those illiberal forces to grow the trust in the state and
its institutions. The more the ruling elites assign willingness to share power with the
illiberal forces that rebel against the state, the more the illiberal forces raise the
trust in a democratic system. Trust always matters and it strengthens illiberal
forces confidence in a democratic system. The LTTE might share the trust in
country’s political establishment if it convinced with wider political autonomy.
Power-sharing with the illiberal forces
Recent political science studies evidently prove that illiberal forces domination in
deeply divided democratic societies can be challenged effectively if the liberal
forces in societies show the political maturity to share the power with those illiberal
forces. Generally, almost all oppressed ethno-political groups in ethnically divided
societies are illiberal. One could observe this reality from India to China to Sudan
to Northern Ireland to Quebec. These forces can grow stronger even challenge the
whole political establishment and seek a separate state and institutions if they are
geographically corned. But existing political science literature suggest that these
illiberal forces can be contained if the political elites find interests in making
peace.
It is really encouraging to observe ruling elites in Colombo express great
enthusiasm to continue fragile no-war treaty. This is really encouraging sign. Both
ruling elites and the LTTE need to work hard to re-build the crisis-ridden
confidence again. State has more responsibility in this nature. Winning the
marginalized people trust is difficult and somehow intricate task but it is not
impossible job at all. This would put the illiberal forces in the ethnic conflict to
renounce and compromise their rigid policies and tactic. This act also spurs the
international forces to apply significant pressure on the LTTE to negotiate with the
southern (ruling) political elites. However, ruling elite’s refusal to offer power-
sharing democracy would not only strengthen the LTTE’s cause and campaign but
also it would isolate southern elites from the international opinion. Sri Lanka would
have to meet painful ending if it continuously denies international opinion.
For that reason, southern major liberal political elites should not give up their
willingness for the negotiated political settlement based on the federal formula. It
is in fact daunting task. But that would be best viable way to defeat the illiberal
LTTE. International leverage must be placed on the Southern elites to seek a
serious political negotiation with the LTTE. Political elites need to think at least little
bid for the country’s betterment. Sri Lanka cannot afford to limb of the war voices.
Economy already in a bad shape as investors express deep distrust in the stability
and it cannot practically afford any nationalists inspired ethnic war against the
LTTE.
Sri Lanka: Paradise or home of suicide bombers?
Ethnic elections in Sri Lanka played key role in marginalizing minorities and
particularly the Tamils. Political elites and leaders need to think new strategies to
win elections rather than riding the ant-Tamil or anti-peace platform. The earlier
the political elites give up ethnic outbidding on the minorities, sooner the Sri Lanka
will face decent future. The point is that the road is still widely open for a
consociational map. The choice is in the hands of Sri Lankan elites and political
leaders particularly from the Sinhalese elites and leaders to lead the island into
what it truly was, a paradise, and failure would not help to erase Sri Lanka’s
current image in the international arena as a home of Tamil suicide bombers and
uncompromising radical Sinhala-Buddhists nationalists.