LTTE runs risk of misjudging intnl. response to election
boycott
By Jehan Perera
Indications from the north east are that people there are getting the impression that
the LTTE is opposed to them casting their votes at the forthcoming Presidential
elections. This contradicts the public statements from LTTE officials that they are goig
to remain neutral in the elections and will not obstruct the elections in any way. But the
newspapers in Jaffna, which is the population centre of the north, and opinion former
for the Tamil people of the north east, are giving a negative picture about the
elections. Perhaps there is a divided opinion within the LTTE itself on the elections,
which is reflected in the uncertainty being felt by the people.
It is generally believed that Jaffna newspapers are deferential to LTTE opinion. The
Tamil people of the north east would read the leaves of a tea cup to keep within the
limits of LTTE thinking. They are viewing these newspaper reports as an indirect
LTTE order to keep away from the polls. When I was in Jaffna a week ago, I was told
of only a single instance of a students' organisation issuing a statement calling on the
people to disregard the elections. Since then there have been more such statements
appearing as pamphlets and in print aimed at dissuading the Tamil people of the
north east from voting in the Presidential elections.
There are two possible reasons why a section within the LTTE may prefer that the
people do not take part in the voting for the new President. The Presidential election
is one of the most important political events in the country. If the people do not vote in
significant numbers at these elections, this section of the LTTE may believe that the
international community will accept their argument that the Tamil people have no faith,
and no interest, in the Sri Lankan political process. In that perspective, a Tamil
boycott or non-participation at the Presidential elections would be a major blow to the
Sri Lankan government's international legitimacy, and would strengthen the LTTE's
case to be the sole representative of the Tamil people.
There is a school of thought that the LTTE may also, for cynical purposes, prefer a
victory by Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse. The Prime Minister has entered into
electoral alliances with strongly nationalist Sinhalese political parties. Under pressue
from them, the Prime Minister has also promised to renege on agreements reached by
the present and past government with the LTTE in respect of both a joint mechanism
for tsunami relief and in respect of power sharing in a federal system as the basis for
a lasting political settlement.
Absurd reasoning
The second reason for keeping the Tamil voters away from the Presidential election
would be to indirectly influence the outcome of those elections. Ironically, there is a
belief that the LTTE may prefer Prime Minister Rajapakse to win the Presidential
election, as it will make it clear that there is no possibility of a negotiated solution with
such a Sri Lankan leadership. In making sense of this state of affairs, it is important to
understand the perspective of the LTTE, as publicly stated by LTTE spokespersons.
The LTTE views the Sri Lankan state and Sinhalese political leaders as being
unsympathetic to Tamil rights, and bent on deceiving the Tamil people and their
leadership. LTTE spokespersons have said this both publicly and privately, and that
they have no reason to place any special trust in either Prime Minister Mahinda
Rajapakse or Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe. Both of the candidates have
been senior members of governments that conducted wars against the LTTE and
other Tamil militant organisations that caused immense destruction to the north east.
There are a great many Sinhalese (and Muslims) who believe that when Mr
Wickremesinghe was Prime Minister he gave far too much away to the LTTE in the
aftermath of signing the Ceasefire Agreement with them. But publicly, at least, the
LTTE's own perception is quite different. They say that Mr. Wickremesinghe promised
a lot but delivered little. Therefore it can be seen that the LTTE's publicly articulated
perception of both the main presidential candidates is a negative one. They would say
that they do not expect to be dealt with favourably by either one of them.
On the other hand, most Tamil voters would not view the two main Presidential
candidates on an equal footing. They are much more anxious and sceptical about the
alliances that Prime Minister Rajapakse has entered into with Sinhalese nationalist
parties, such as the JVP and JHU, who are totally opposed to their aspirations for
autonomy and federal power sharing. The JHU has even gone to the extent of
advocating a military solution to the ethnic conflict by crushing the LTTE in war. Most
Tamil voters, who fear a return to war above all else, can be expected to cast their
vote against such a coalition of parties.
If this analysis is accepted, then it can be seen that any LTTE decision to keep Tamil
voters away from the poll is likely to deprive Opposition Leader Wickremesinghe,
rather than Prime Minister Rajapakse, of votes he can reasonably expect from the
north east. If normal standards of logic are employed, to suggest that the LTTE
actually wishes to see the defeat of Mr Wickremesinghe would be unreasonable. On
the face of it, the LTTE should be more interested in securing the defeat of Mr
Rajapakse as his political allies and his campaign manifesto articulate policy
statements that are at total variance with the positions upheld by the LTTE.
Miscalculations
However, there are two reasons why some within the LTTE may feel that a victory by
Mr Rajapakse will actually be beneficial to them. The first is that the general belief that
the Sinhalese nationalist coalition around Mr Rajapakse will block him from taking the
peace process forward. In his election campaign, Mr Rajapakse and his colleagues
have been questioning the need for an interim arrangement for the north east and the
need for foreign facilitation. In the absence of forward movement of the peace
process, the economic peace dividend will continue to fail to materialise. A frustrated
and impoverished country may once again be pushed back to war, which is the
LTTE's domain of greatest strength.
The second reason why the LTTE may actually prefer a victory by Prime Minister
Rajapakse at the forthcoming election is their belief that his nationalist coalition will
lose the support of the international community. This is on account of their rejection of
the PTOMS joint tsunami mechanism, and the Oslo declaration of a federal solution,
both of which were facilitated by the international community. Therefore, the LTTE
may harbour a belief that the international community will withdraw its support to the
Sri Lankan government and instead support the LTTE's bid for separation from a
backward-looking Sri Lankan government.
But such an analysis is likely to prove wrong. During his long tenure as a senior
minister and now Prime Minister in the government of President Chandrika
Kumaratunga, Mr Rajapakse was never in the forefront of those who urged war as the
solution to the ethnic conflict.
On numerous occasions, Prime Minister Rajapakse has publicly pledged not to permit
a war to break out again. The Sinhalese nationalist coalition around the Prime Minister
may block him from making any generous power sharing offer to the LTTE. But they
will not be able to push Mr Rajapakse back to war. If there is to be a renewed war, it
will have to be the LTTE that takes the initiative to restart the war. This will go down
very badly with the international community.
The second possible miscalculation of the LTTE concerns the international community
stance with regard to them. This miscalculation is understandable as the topmost
leadership of the LTTE has been isolated in the Wanni for over twenty years. The
LTTE may believe that the international community will not wish to support a
government that goes back on its commitments, such as the PTOMS and Oslo
declaration. There are certain countries that may withdraw their special support to the
Sri Lankan government if it does not take forward the peace process after the
election. But there will be many others that will continue to specially support the Sri
Lankan government as the legitimate authority in the country.
What the LTTE needs to realize as an insurmountable reality is that the international
community's possible displeasure at the Sri Lankan government, will not translate into
support to the LTTE to achieve separation. The international community, and its major
powers, not least India and the United States, have committed themselves to Sri
Lanka's unity. Nor will the international community ever embrace the LTTE so long as
it engages in political assassinations and child recruitment, let alone undermines
democratic processes such as free and fair elections.
Any direct or indirect LTTE pressure on the Tamil people not to vote at the
forthcoming Presidential elections will go down very badly with the international
community which has already sent its teams of election observers into the country.
The LTTE needs to act positively to take the peace process forward if it wishes to
obtain the support of the international community for itself. It is in the LTTE's interests,
as much as it is in the country's interests, to encourage the Tamil people to take part
in the forthcoming Presidential elections. Those who work for peace in Sri Lanka can
only gain legitimacy and succeed within the democratic framework, and this includes
the LTTE. [Courtesy: Daily Mirror]