Twelve Commandments of the Crimson Comrades
By D.B.S. Jeyaraj
The compelling need to garner as many sources of voter support as possible has
made Mahendra Percy Rajapakse alias Mahinda Rajapakse commit what may very
well be a major political blunder.
The electoral arrangement that Mahinda has purportedly reached with the Peoples
Liberation Front or Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna will be in his case the albatross
around the ancient mariners neck.
The road to hell they say is paved with good intentions. In Mahindas case too the
agreement with the "rathu sahodarayas" was a well - intentioned move to broaden
his vote base and ensure a sweeping victory. Unfortunately the terms and conditions
of this deal with the crimson comrades may result in the opposite taking place and
make the exercise totally counterproductive.
Though the Sinhala hawks are chortling with premature glee about the great victory
that the Ruhunu Puthra - Rathu Sahadoraya deal is going to usher in this column
opines that such hopes are greatly exaggerated. The anticipated victory may never
ever be registered.
Mahinda Rajapakse faces three hurdles each of them formidable in ascending
order. Firstly he has to secure the full agreement and support of his party and
leader for the terms of this alliance. Secondly he has to win the Presidential election
on the basis of this alliance. Thirdly he has to govern the Country with peace and
prosperity according to the policies outlined in this alliance.
The JVP has been quick off the mark in announcing the deal with Mahinda
Rajapakse. The crimson comrades have pointed out that their business is only with
Mahinda Rajapakse the presidential candidate and not the party to which he
belongs. So Mahinda has to secure party approval for this conditional alignment. He
has to particularly gain his party leader Chandrika Kumaratungas consent and
support for this alliance.
Kumaratunga had earlier given him a free hand in forging an alliance with the
JVP.This was in keeping with her often unprincipled approach characterised as
pragmatism in sharing her political bed with strange bedfellows. While allowing
Mahinda freedom to forge an alliance with the JVP Kumaratunga was also careful
about its limits.
The state controlled "Daily News" of Sep 6th reports " Though she was not against
the party forging a united action plan with the JVP, the President nevertheless
stressed that this should not be at the expense of compromising the party's policies.
.........She emphasised that care should be exercised to ensure no agreement is
reached that would weaken or erode the base of the SLFP".
It is a well - known fact that the Sri Lanka Freedom Party has acquired a new face
and new direction under the leadership of Chandrika Kumaratunga. The most
notable among these are on the ethnic and economic fronts. Discarding the "unitary"
state concept to the dustbin of history and setting up a federal or quasi - federal
state in a "united" Sri Lanka is a key policy of the present SLFP. Embracing
capitalism with a human face in an open , liberalised economy is another
achievement of the party under Kumaratunga.
These changes in ethnic and economic policy were significant points of departure
from the old SLFP. The twelve point formula of the Mahinda - JVP understanding is
nothing but a reversal of this position. Mahinda and the crimson comrades are trying
to make the SLFP go "forward" into the past. This is not progress but regression of
the highest order.
Despite her magnanimity towards Mahinda in recent times even Chandrika cannot
accept these conditions numbering a "dirty dozen". To do so would be to admit that
all her policies of the past were utterly wrong. If Rajapakse has indeed accepted the
JVP conditions without any reservation it can only mean that the SLFP has
completely surrendered to the JVP. Neither leader nor party can stomach this
making it doubtful as to whether Rajapakse can persuade his boss lady or party
colleagues endorse this deal.
Even if Kumaratunga and party endorse this deal Rajapakse is not guaranteed of
victory. It is not a case of political arithmetic where the votes of SLFP and JVP are
added up vis a vis the UNP. There is also what could be called political algebra. The
terms and conditions of the Mahinda - JVP arrangement can wreak havoc with
existing voting patterns and political configurations.
If the SLFP - JVP axis is finalised on these terms then there is every likelihood of the
ultra - reactionary Jathika Hela Urumaya also falling in line. This axis could result in
the Sinhala Christian vote going to the UNP. The economic policies can only spell
future doom.Against that backdrop sections of the Sinhala middle classes too could
shift their support towards the opposite camp.
The emphasis on a unitary state, abolition of the executive presidency along with the
unrealistic policies of dealing with the LTTE and Oslo etc can upset the minorities.
The Sri Lankan Tamils will be compelled to support Wickremasinghe. Even those
circles troubled over Wickremasinghes "softness" towards the LTTE may consider
that to be the lesser evil in contrast with Rajapakses" hardness". The JVP conditions
can only result in total breakdown of the peace process and push the country
towards open full - scale war.
In such a situation Tamil political parties including the Ceylon Workers Congress will
find it difficult to support Rajapakse. This goes for Muslim factions in the
Government like those headed by ferial ashraff, Athaullah and Badiurdeen.
furthermore even if these parties accept the status quo the members of communities
they claim to represent may not. The minority vote may swing massively against the
Mahinda - JVP nexus because of some of the conditions in this alignment.
In that context of a minority community and middle class vote swing and in a situation
where the UNP has continuously retained a minimum vote bank of 35% the chances
of Mahinda winning the Presidency in tow with the JVP on the basis of the twelve
conditions are extreme;y remote.
Even if Rajapakse were to win there is that third hurdle of good governance. If
President Rajapakse tries to govern according to the twelve commandments laid
down by the crimson comrades. The JVP in typical Sinhala supremacist fashion
thinks conditions can be imposed on the LTTE without their consent. The Sinhala
hardliners including our rathu sahodarayas are yet to realise that Colombo has lost
the previous war with the tigers.
The changes proposed by the JVP on the ethnic front including a potential
jettisoning of Norway will certainly lead to a collapse of what is left of the peace
process. War would be inevitable.
Economically the notions outlined in th twelve commandments will lead to a cut back
in most international aid and assistance. the economy too will take a tumble. This
process would be accelerated and aggravated by the outbreak of war. What lies in
store therefore for a JVP inspired dispensation under President Mahinda Rajapakse
is total disaster.
Change without order results in chaos. Order without change results in stagnation.
In a " Mahinda Rajya" established according to the twelve commandments of the JVP
there will be both chaos and stagnation.
What is pathetically absurd about this scenario is that had Mahinda the gumption
and guts to stay firm the JVP could have come around to extending unconditional
support to Rajapakse. At worst the comrades would have stayed neutral.Realpolitik
being what it is the JVP would have really had no choice if Rajapakse was bold.
Instead of calling the JVP bluff Mahinda has allowed the JVP to bluff him.
One can only hope that the JVP announcement of a tie - up was a gamble by the
crimson comrades to pressure Mahinda into going along with the twelve
commandments. The JVP could have jumped the gun in publicising a deal that was
yet to be finalised. If so there is chance yet for redemption. The unrealistic and
downright stupid demands of the JVP will have to be significantly downsized or simply
discarded.
A direct or indirect alliance with the JVP is not to be faulted. The twelve principle
basis of this alignment however is to be faulted. If endorsed and implemented it can
only be a disastrous recipe for candidate, party and ultimately Country. It is not too
late to take swift remedial action. Even the laird of Girawapattu cannot be this naive
or could he be such a knave after all?
[MinorMatters-MorningLeader]